President Joe Biden has announced that he will run for a second term in 2024.
"S"Biden saidwhen asked by ABC News late last year if he would run for the White House again. "But look, I respect fate a lot: fate has intervened in my life many, many times. If I were as healthy as I am now, I am in good health, I would walk again."
Whichgesture of disapprovalLeave the door ajar so he doesn't run away again. And The Atlantic's Mark Leibovich argued that that's the course it should take in its entirety this week.
"Let me be very clear: Joe Biden should not be running for re-election in 2024."Leibovich wrote. "He is very old," added Leibovich:
“Biden turns 80 on November 20. He will be 82 when he starts a second term. The numbers are still ridiculous from there. "It's not 82, that's the problem. It's 86," said one undecided voter in a recent focus group, referring to the hypothetical age Biden would be at the end of that (very) hypothetical second term.
This article is still hot on my heels.Reporting in the New York TimesDocumenting growing rumors among Democrats that their best bet in 2024 may not be Biden leading the race.
“While the challenges facing the nation and weary grassroots voters show little enthusiasm, Democrats at union meetings, Capitol Hill backstage, and coast-to-coast party rallies are quietly concerned about Mr. Biden, his age and his ability to take charge. Fight for former President Donald J. Trump a second time.”
In response to questions about Biden's 2024 run, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre respondedhe said this week on CNN:: “What I can say is that the President has repeatedly said he plans to run in 2024 and I have to leave it at that. All I can say is that the President intends to do what he intends to do."
With the growing conversation about Biden's future, I thought it would be a valuable exercise to see whoandershe could end up as a Democratic presidential candidate in two years. One thing to keep in mind: If Biden runs, it'sveryunlikely to face a significant primary challenge. Most of the names on this list would only run if Biden chose not to.
My initial ranking of the 10 Democrats most likely to represent the party in the 2024 presidential campaign is below. (My 2024 Republican ranking from earlier this month isHere.) If you can't find your favorite on this list, don't despair: there are 872 days until the 2024 federal election. Things are going to change!
10. Chris Murphy: The Connecticut senator is at the center of negotiations for a new gun law after the mass shooting at a school in Uvalde, Texas. He is also an eloquent voice for liberal politics, but by no means a strict ideologue. "He seems to understand that politics is the art of achieving the possible, not just striving for the impossible and blaming the opposition."wrote political scientist Stu Rothenbergin a column earlier this month that speculated on what's next for Murphy. Murphy doesn't get a lot of attention as a potential 2024 candidate, but I think it would be intriguing if he decided to run.
9. Roy Cooper:Being elected and re-elected as a Democrat in North Carolina is no easy feat. But that's exactly what Cooper did. And there is a template for a Southern governor (Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter) to run and win the White House. Like the New York Timesrecorded in a storyAs of late last year, Cooper has a track record that could appeal to Democratic primary voters:helped repeal a lawwhich required people in government institutions to use bathrooms that matched the gender on their birth certificates. He also issued executive orderspaid paternity leaveYclimate neutrality. Cooper's biggest problem in a 2024 race? It is not known nationally. Not at all.
8. Cory Booker: The New Jersey senator's 2020 presidential campaign never got off the ground. But many of the things that made Booker attractive for the role in 2020 remain true: he's a charismatic politician with a healthy dose of star power. Also, after running and losing once for the Democratic nomination, he's probably smarter to run a second time. The fact that Booker's last attempt was unsuccessful naturally raises the question, "Why?" which Booker would have to answer to gain ground in a subsequent race.
7. Amy Klobuchar: Unlike Booker, the Minnesota senator had a moment in the 2020 race. In the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary, she looked like the candidate of the moment and appeared to have a shot at an upset victory. She finished the coursebecome third, behind Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. Less than a month later, he was out of the running and threw his support behind Biden. The way he ran and ended his campaign earned Klobuchar praise that could come in handy if he runs again in 2024.
6.Elizabeth Waren: My eyebrows rose when, in April, Warren ran the pages of the New York Times with an opinion headline: "Democrats Can Avoid November Disaster.” His argument was that Democrats needed to pass as much of their agenda as possible before November and that voters would reward them for doing so. Which, well, questionable. The commentary included these lines: "Despite pandemic relief, infrastructure investments and the historic confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson by the Supreme Court, we promised more and voters remember those promises." That kind of language puts Warren in a position to say "I told you so" if the Democrats are defeated in the 2022 election. And it could serve as a launching pad for a second run for the White House.
5. Gavin Newsom: A funny thing happened when Republicans in California tried to remove Newsom as governor: It made him much, much stronger. not just newsomeasily defeatedthe 2021 recall, but is now a strong favorite to win a second term in November. This recall effort has also given Newsom tremendous national exposure to the donor and activist class, which would come in handy if he decides to run in 2024. Newsom is playing coy, at least for now. "It's not even on my radar"told the San Francisco Chroniclein May of a possible presidential candidacy. that, well But Newsom always had BIG ambitions.
4. Pete Buttigieg: When Buttigieg, the rising star of the 2020 Democratic presidential campaign, took over as transportation secretary in the Biden administration, many observers wondered why. After all, it's not the kind of bastion that positions like Attorney General or Secretary of State are. But Buttigieg proved his skeptics wrong and emerged as the face of the popular infrastructure bill. It turns out that spending federal dollars on local projects is a great way to build goodwill. Buttigieg is among the Democratic Party's most natural politicians, and at 40, he can afford to wait if the field of 2024 or even 2028 doesn't look promising for him.
3. Bernie Sanders: Most people assumed that the 2020 presidential race would be the last one for Vermont's senator. After all, he is now 80 years old, and with two failed national candidacies, it looked like Sanders was probably heading towards political twilight. No! "In the event of an open 2024 Democratic presidential primary, Senator Sanders has not ruled out another presidential nomination, so we encourage you to answer any questions about 2024 with that in mind," Sanders adviser Faiz Shakir wrote.in a memo to alliesIn April. While Sanders hasruled out challenging Biden in 2024 Democratic primary, it's easy to see him considering another race if Biden retires. And Sanders remains the best-known and most popular candidate among liberals in the country.
2. Kamala Harris: The Vice President seems to have stabilized the ship a bit after adecidedly difficult first year moreIn the office. While Harris' political actions took a huge hit, she would still start an open 2024 Democratic race as the frontrunner, thanks in large part to the support of black voters. Though she started as the favorite, it's still hard to see Harris step down after her previous struggles as Biden's running mate.
1. Joe Biden: There's no doubt that Biden is in bad shape politically right now: approval ratings in the low 30s, gasoline at $5 a gallon, the highest inflation in 40 years. There's also no doubt that if Biden decides to run for a second term, he'll almost certainly be the party's nominee, and he probably won't have to fight too hard for it. It's an open question whether this is in the interests of Democrats nationally.