How every senator and governor ranks on the basis of "popularity over replacement." (2023)

Wahl 2022

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After a hiatus of about three years, FiveThirtyEight'sPopularity above Deputy SenatorjPopularity above Deputy GovernorReviews are back! Based on Morning Consult approval ratings1for everySenatorjGovernorin the country (now updated for Q1 2022) PARS and PARG attempt to measure how much stronger (or weaker) a politician is than a generic (or, to use a baseball term,replacement level) would be the candidate of his party.

The idea behind these statistics is that a 70% approval rating for a Massachusetts Democrat is not the same as a 70% approval rating for a Florida Democrat. Because Massachusetts is so blue, that's not a big deal in Bay State, but in reddish Florida it marks a talented politician with plenty of partisan appeal.

Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: it's just the difference between the values ​​of each state.FiveThirtyEight partisan inclinations2and the senator's or governor's net approval rating (approval rate minus disapproval rate). If we do this for the Senate, we get the following table of the top and bottom performing senators in the state:

Nationally, Senator Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in Liberals' side for opposing President Biden's agendasocial security network,right to choose,abortionand more. but your moderationmade him popular with votersin his home state of West Virginia: He has a net approval rating of +22 in the state of R+36, for a house leader PARS of +58. And he's not the only Democrat with plenty of partisan appeal; In fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores tie all conventions with the Democratic Party. These include Senators Jon Tester (+33 PARS) and Sherrod Brown (+20 PARS), who managed to win multiple elections despite being from red states.

It also offers a glimmer of hope for Democrats, who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022 as this fall's midterm elections look good for Republicans. Their four most vulnerable starters this fall, Sens. Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto all have PARS scores of at least +7, suggesting they are capable of breaking through their state's fundamental partisanship . This will be crucial in a year when solely on party trends andGeneric ballot voting in Congress, you would expect a Republican to win in his home states, other things being equal.

On the other hand, Republican Senator Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); Although his home state of Wisconsin has an R+4 partisan bias, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Theunpopularitycould drag it down in November and allow Democrats to flip a Senate seat that should remain Republican on paper in this environment.

On the other hand, a senator's PARS score isn't everything. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). Though his net approval rating has long been down, he was easily re-elected in 2020 thanks to Kentucky's overwhelming Republican leanings. (Nevertheless, he won by "only" 20 points, several points behind the state's partisan bias, suggesting he was unpopularsomeIt is done.)

However, Senators like Manchin and McConnell are exceptions. Most senators have single-digit PARS scores, indicating their approval rating is largely determined by their state's partisanship. However, this is less true for governors. Although partisanship has beenincreasingly importantemRace for governor, is not such a dominant force in them as in federal elections.3

As a result, more governors than senators have PARGs at the extreme end of the spectrum, as you can see in the table below. Also, a mix of both parties dominates the top of the list, not just the Democrats.

As they have been doing for years, three Republicans from the Blue State of the Northeast lead the way: the governors. Charlie Baker from Massachusetts, Phil Scott from Vermont and Larry Hogan from Maryland. Everyone is currently enjoying an exceptional PARG of +75 or higher. A trio of Red State Democrats, Kentucky's Andy Beshear, Kansas' Laura Kelly and Louisiana's John Bel Edwards, also have PARGs between +31 and +51.

Like a senator's PARS score, a governor's PARG score can help us get a better idea of ​​which governors running for re-election in 2022 are best equipped to swim against their state's partisan tide. Scott and Kelly4They seem to be in a better position, especially Scott: Not only does he have more bipartisan appeal than Kelly (+77 PARG), but he's also a Republican running in a good Republican year. Kelly, on the other hand, has a strong national Democratic Party brand, but it's an open question if she can get enough Kansas Republicans to support her, go the extra mile, and vote for her too.early voteindicates a close race.

Governors running for re-election in swing states also have very different PARGs, which explains why some of them are vulnerable this year while others are likely to have nothing to fear. For example, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Governor Chris Sununu's net approval rating is +30, so he's expected to win re-election easily. And Democratic Gov. Jared Polis is expected to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning halftime on D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher, giving him a nice cushion should the environmental agency put your state in a tight spot. Disadvantage. play.

With a PARG of +13, Nevada's Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak also has a strong personal brand that could help him weather a tough re-election campaign in purple Nevada. But Wisconsin's Democratic Gov. Tony Evers may be more at the mercy of the mood in the country. Evers' PARG is only +1, suggesting his perception relies heavily on partisanship. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan falls somewhere in the middle with a PARG of +6. This suggests she has onePieceSubsequent appeal, whose fate is still closely linked to partisanship.

At the bottom of the list are five governors up for re-election whose approval ratings do not appear as strong as they do after accounting for partisan bias. That means they're all in very safe condition, so they shouldn't be in any danger. However, the Rhode Island gubernatorial race might be a pipe dream considering Governor Dan McKee has a mediocre +2 net approval rating, the fact that he is running for office for the first time (hebecame governorjust because he was lieutenant governor when the former governor resigned), National Pro-Republican humor, and Rhode Island humorelasticity.

Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). Both have negative net approval ratings despite having fairly blue status. They may be at risk of losing their seats in 2022, but luckily for Democrats, both are quitting.

Other query bits

• a newResearch from the University of Monmouth, held May 5-9 following a draft Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, found that only 38% of Americans approved of the Supreme Court's work, while 52% disapproved. That was significantly worse than the court's March ratings, when 42% agreed and 42% disagreed. But it could also be seen as a continuation of a long-standing decline in the dish's popularity; A March 2016 Monmouth poll gave the court 49% approval and 33% disapproval.
• With the possibility that abortion will soon be illegal in many states, some people may face difficult decisions about what to do if they experience an unwanted pregnancy. after aSurvey from May 5th to 8thAccording to Generation Lab, which researches trends in young people, 56% of women ages 18 to 29 said they would still see an abortion provider even if it were illegal. Another 10% said they would try to terminate their pregnancy at home. Only 34% said they would carry the pregnancy to term.
• Like hate crimes against Asian Americansincreased during the corona pandemic, 72 percent of English-speaking Asian Americans said whenPew Research Centerwho sometimes worry about being threatened or attacked because of their race or ethnicity, including 21% who said they worry about it every day or almost every day. More than a third, 36 percent, also said they changed their daily routines because of these concerns.
• Billionaire Elon Musk's attempt to buy Twitter isn't official yet, but if it succeeds, he said this week he would.Restore former President Donald Trump's account. But after aMorning consultation/policy pollFrom April 29 to May 2, the decision was a contentious one: 45% of registered voters believed Trump's Twitter ban should be permanent, while 41% approved of his account's restoration.

Endosso de Biden

Laut FiveThirtyEightPresident's Approval Tracker,541.4% of Americans approve of the work Biden is doing as president, while 52.6% disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). Last week at the same time, 42.2% agreed and 52.5% disagreed (net agreement score -10.3 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2% and a disapproval rating of 52.2%, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points.

generic ticket

In our average survey ofgeneric congressional vote,6Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5% vs. 42.9%). A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2.6 points (45.4% to 42.8%). Last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent).